Security Implications of Alternative Defense Options for Western Europe

West European security Implications of five alternative defense scenarios arc assessed for the period 1985 to 2000. The main characteristics of each of the five scenarios are (1) current nuclear and conventional posture trends, (2) a submarine based, West European strategic nuclear force, no tactical or land-based nuclear weapons, but current conventional posture, (3) same as regards nuclear posture, but a high-technology area defense with low mobility, (4) no nuclear weapons at all, territorial high-technology defense wit h some mobility, and (5) no military defense, but defense budget spent on international conflict prevention. Security is appraised with respect to nuclear destruction and with respect to foreign occupation. Scenario (1) is found to lower security against nuclear destruction, (4) is roughly stable in this respect, and the remaining scenarios increase security. As for territorial occupation, (4) is again fairly stable, while the other scenarios except (5) improve security. These estimates are based on the assumption that Western Europe carries through its alternative defense policy unilaterally. Arms control agreements with potential aggressors could improve security under (3), (4), and (5).