The Garrison State in America: a Content Analysis of Trends in the Expectation of Violence

In the revised version of the garrison state hypothesis, Lasswell argued that the modern garrison state would retain many of the external forms of democracy, while effective power was increasingly concentrated in an elite composed of military officers and militarized civilians. Here we attempt to assess the relevance of the garrison state construct for contemporary American politics through an analysis of trends in expectations of violence, on the assumption that high expectations of violence and a clear enemy are necessary, though not sufficient, conditions for the emergence of a garrison state. Based on a content analysis of presidential State of the Union messages since 1946 and survey data on trends in public opinion, we conclude that since 1977 the U.S. has been engaged in a new 'cold war' characterized by a strong sense of threat, frequent references to aggression, conflict, and violence, and heavy emphasis on the Soviet Union as the enemy. Given the post- Vietnam lack of consensus on foreign policy and security issues, the new cold war poses more serious problems in civil-military relations than the earlier cold war era and possibly greater danger of an attempt to institute some form of garrison state.