Simplified reliability-based load design factors for explosive blast loading, weapons effects, and its application to collateral damage estimation

The paper describes a simplified approach to quantifying a reliability-based design load factor (RBDF) for the variability of explosive blast loading. The user can select range and explosive mass variability and model errors to derive RBDFs for pressure and impulse. These algorithms may be easily programmed into a spreadsheet, computer code, or other numerical method. There is a need by military planners to increase the predictive accuracy of collateral damage estimation (CDE) to ensure maximum damage to the target while minimizing harm to nearby civilians. This present paper uses the CDE damage criterion adopted by the USA and NATO to assess damage and safety risks and recommend safe collateral damage distances. Hence, the present paper utilizes RBDFs to simulate collateral damage risks to a hypothetical reinforced concrete residential building from a 2000 lb bomb using the 99th percentile of blast loads, engineering models, and Monte Carlo simulation analysis that considers variabilities of load and resistance. It was found that CDE is sensitive to airblast model errors and variability of structural resistance. It is recommended that these considerations be incorporated into CDE methodology since existing CDE methodology may be non-conservative, resulting in higher risks of collateral damage.