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Buying votes with imperfect local knowledge and a secret ballot

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  • Miguel R Rueda

Abstract

How do politicians buy votes in secret ballot elections? I present a model of vote buying in which a broker sustains bribed voters’ compliance by conditioning future bribes on whether her candidate’s votes reach an optimally set threshold. Unlike previous explanations of compliance, the threshold mechanism does not require brokers to observe individual voters’ political preferences or even vote totals of the bribed voters. I show that when there is uncertainty about voters’ preferences, compliance can be sustained as long as electoral results of small groups are available. If preferences are observed however, vote buying is not deterred by higher aggregation of electoral results. I also find that vote buying is facilitated when voters care about the welfare of other voters. Using survey data from Nigeria, I provide evidence consistent with the model’s results.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel R Rueda, 2015. "Buying votes with imperfect local knowledge and a secret ballot," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(3), pages 428-456, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:27:y:2015:i:3:p:428-456
    DOI: 10.1177/0951629814533841
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel W. Gingerich & Luis Fernando Medina, 2013. "The Endurance and Eclipse of the Controlled Vote: A Formal Model of Vote Brokerage Under the Secret Ballot," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 453-480, November.
    2. Nichter, Simeon, 2008. "Vote Buying or Turnout Buying? Machine Politics and the Secret Ballot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 19-31, February.
    3. James A. Robinson & Thierry Verdier, 2013. "The Political Economy of Clientelism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 260-291, April.
    4. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00846558 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jean-Marie Baland & James A. Robinson, 2008. "Land and Power: Theory and Evidence from Chile," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1737-1765, December.
    6. John Morgan & Felix Várdy, 2011. "On the buyability of voting bodies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 260-287, April.
    7. Smith, Alastair & Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce, 2012. "Contingent Prize Allocation and Pivotal Voting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 371-392, April.
    8. Groseclose, Tim & Snyder, James M., 1996. "Buying Supermajorities," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(2), pages 303-315, June.
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/bpfbvips89ef8bnmu88napd8r is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/bpfbvips89ef8bnmu88napd8r is not listed on IDEAS

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