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Do Jockeys “Look to†or “Rest on†Their Laurels After a Sequence of Winning Rides?

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  • Rod Falvey
  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru
  • Robert Wrathall

Abstract

We use Australian Thoroughbred racing data, including situational variables, to examine when a sequence of winning rides for a jockey initiates psychological momentum (PM) that makes a win on the next ride more or less likely, other things equal. Of the 42% of jockeys that exhibit PM, we find positive PM is much more common (80%) than negative PM; PM is more often precipitated by the first than the second win in the sequence; and the duration of PM is only a single ride in 90% of cases. The later the precipitating win in the sequence the more intense the PM generated. We find no evidence that PM is related to age, gender, or general riding ability. Although a broad strategy of betting on momentum-prone jockeys would result in losses, a more selective wagering strategy exploiting knowledge of when the PM is precipitated and its intensity, could generate a positive profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Robert Wrathall, 2025. "Do Jockeys “Look to†or “Rest on†Their Laurels After a Sequence of Winning Rides?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 78-114, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:1:p:78-114
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025241282315
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