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Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues

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  • Young Hoon Lee
  • Rodney Fort

Abstract

The analysis of outcome uncertainty (OU) and competitive balance (CB) has been of overwhelming importance in sports economics. Surprisingly, there is little work on the impact of the structure of play on either OU or CB. Balanced and unbalanced schedules, and division play have been used to analyze biasedness of CB measures. And the impact of the introduction of unbalanced schedules on OU has been analyzed. But the impact of the introduction of both unbalanced schedules and division play on OU has not been analyzed. In this paper, we assess the impacts on OU, for given choices of CB (OU/CB) of moving to division play. This includes the impact of schedule imbalance, division strength, the number of teams, and the number of divisions. We also obtain estimates of their marginal impacts on OU/CB via numerical analysis and regression. The results are compared to OU/CB from unbiased estimators, for the case of the introduction of division play in Major League Baseball. The results suggest that the approach is useful and there are policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 639-663, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:24:y:2023:i:5:p:639-663
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025221148995
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodney Fort, 2005. "The Golden Anniversary of “The Baseball Players’ Labor Marketâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(4), pages 347-358, November.
    2. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2019. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 479-508, May.
    3. Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2005. "Structural Change in MLB Competitive Balance: The Depression, Team Location, and Integration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 158-169, January.
    4. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    5. Lee Young Hoon & Kim Yongdai & Kim Sara, 2019. "Competitive balance with unbalanced schedules," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 239-260, September.
    6. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2008. "Unbalanced Schedules And The Estimation Of Competitive Balance In The Scottish Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 488-508, September.
    7. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2015. "Measurement of Competitive Balance in Conference and Divisional Tournament Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 3-25, January.
    8. Hayley Jang & Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2019. "Winning In Professional Team Sports: Historical Moments," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 103-120, January.
    9. Rodney Fort & Young H. Lee, 2020. "Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(51), pages 5629-5638, November.
    10. Rodney Fort & Joel Maxcy, 2003. "“Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introductionâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 154-160, May.
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