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Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War

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  • Magnus Lundgren
  • Isak Svensson
  • Dogukan Cansin Karakus

Abstract

Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Lundgren & Isak Svensson & Dogukan Cansin Karakus, 2023. "Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1350-1375, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:7-8:p:1350-1375
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221148655
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    1. Justino, Patricia & Bruck, Tilman & Verwimp, Philip (ed.), 2013. "A Micro-Level Perspective on the Dynamics of Conflict, Violence, and Development," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199664597.
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