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Fraud Is What People Make of It: Election Fraud, Perceived Fraud, and Protesting in Nigeria

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  • Ursula Daxecker
  • Jessica Di Salvatore
  • Andrea Ruggeri

Abstract

Why do fraudulent elections encourage protesting? Scholars suggest that information about fraud shapes individuals’ beliefs and propensity to protest. Yet these accounts neglect the complexity of opinion formation and have not been tested at the individual level. We distinguish between the mobilizing effects of actual incidents of election fraud and individuals’ subjective perceptions of fraud. While rational updating models would imply that both measures similarly affect mobilization, we argue that subjective fraud perceptions are more consistent predictors of protesting, also being shaped by attitudes, information, and community networks. Our empirical analysis uses geo-referenced individual-level data on fraud events, fraud perception, and protesting from the 2007 Nigerian elections. Our analysis yields two main findings: proximity to reported fraud has no effect on protesting and citizens perceiving elections as fraudulent are consistently more likely to protest, and more so if embedded in community networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ursula Daxecker & Jessica Di Salvatore & Andrea Ruggeri, 2019. "Fraud Is What People Make of It: Election Fraud, Perceived Fraud, and Protesting in Nigeria," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(9), pages 2098-2127, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:9:p:2098-2127
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002718824636
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyde, Susan D. & Marinov, Nikolay, 2014. "Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: The Role of International Election Observation," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 329-359, April.
    2. Brancati, Dawn, 2014. "Building Confidence in Elections: The Case of Electoral Monitors in Kosova," Journal of Experimental Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 6-15, April.
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