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Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Asal
  • Brian J. Phillips
  • R. Karl Rethemeyer
  • Corina Simonelli
  • Joseph K. Young

Abstract

How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against civilians? Scholars of civil war increasingly seek to understand intentional civilian targeting, often referred to as terrorism. Extant research emphasizes group weakness, or general state attributes such as regime type. We focus on terrorism as violent communication and as a response to government actions. State tactics toward groups, carrots and sticks, should be important for explaining insurgent terror. We test the argument using new data on terrorism by insurgent groups, with many time-varying variables, covering 1998 through 2012. Results suggest government coercion against a group is associated with subsequent terrorism by that group. However, this is only the case for larger insurgent groups, which raises questions about the notion of terrorism as a weapon of the weak. Carrots are often negatively related to group terrorism. Other factors associated with insurgent terrorism include holding territory, ethnic motivation, and social service provision.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Asal & Brian J. Phillips & R. Karl Rethemeyer & Corina Simonelli & Joseph K. Young, 2019. "Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(7), pages 1710-1735, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:7:p:1710-1735
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002718789748
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