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Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure

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  • Bradley C. Smith
  • William Spaniel

Abstract

How do new leaders impact crisis negotiations? We argue that opposing states know less about such a leader’s resolve over the issues at stake. To fully appreciate the consequences, we develop a multi-period bargaining model of negotiations. In equilibrium, as a proposer becomes close to certain of its opponent’s type, the duration and intensity of war goes to 0. We then test whether increase in leader tenure decrease the duration of militarized interstate disputes. Our estimates indicate that crises involving new leaders are 25.3 percent more likely to last one month than crises involving leaders with four years of tenure. Moreover, such conflicts are more likely to result in higher fatality levels. These results further indicate that leader tenure is a useful proxy for uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley C. Smith & William Spaniel, 2019. "Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(5), pages 1222-1252, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:5:p:1222-1252
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002718789738
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Horowitz, Michael C. & Stam, Allan C., 2014. "How Prior Military Experience Influences the Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 527-559, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin T. Greene & Caroline Tornquist & Robbert Fokkink & Roy Lindelauf & V. S. Subrahmanian, 2021. "Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Carolyn Chisadza, 2020. "Leaders and Tenures in Sub‐Saharan Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 323-340, September.

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