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Sequencing the Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Madhav Joshi
  • Erik Melander
  • Jason Michael Quinn

Abstract

Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period—the holding of the first post-accord election—which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Madhav Joshi & Erik Melander & Jason Michael Quinn, 2017. "Sequencing the Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(1), pages 4-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:61:y:2017:i:1:p:4-28
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002715576573
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Koga Sudduth, 2021. "Who Punishes the Leader? Leader Culpability and Coups during Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 427-452, February.
    2. Giuditta Fontana & Argyro Kartsonaki & Natascha S Neudorfer & Dawn Walsh & Stefan Wolff & Christalla Yakinthou, 2021. "The dataset of Political Agreements in Internal Conflicts (PAIC)," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(3), pages 338-364, May.
    3. Alyssa K Prorok & Deniz Cil, 2022. "Cheap talk or costly commitment? Leader statements and the implementation of civil war peace agreements," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 409-424, May.

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