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Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan Danneman

    (Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA)

  • Emily Hencken Ritter

    (Department of Political Science, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA)

Abstract

Civil conflict appears to be contagious—scholars have shown that civil wars in a state’s neighborhood make citizens more likely to rebel at home. However, war occurs when both rebels and the state engage in conflict. How do state authorities respond to the potential for civil conflict to spread? We argue that elites will anticipate the incentive-altering effects of civil wars abroad and increase repression at home to preempt potential rebellion. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model and spatially weighted conflict measures, we find robust evidence that a state will engage in higher levels of human rights violations as civil war becomes more prevalent in its geographic proximity. We thus find evidence that states violate rights as a function of the internal politics of other states. Further, we argue authorities will act not to mimic their neighbors but rather to avoid their fate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Danneman & Emily Hencken Ritter, 2014. "Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(2), pages 254-279, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:58:y:2014:i:2:p:254-279
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "The geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 109-119.
    3. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 7-16.
    4. Kishi Roudabeh & Maggio Giuseppe & Raleigh Clionadh, 2017. "Foreign Investment and State Conflicts in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Daryna Grechyna, 2018. "Shall We Riot Too? The Geographical Neighbor Impact on Political Instability," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 581-612, November.

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