Shouldering the Soldiering

As the American death toll in Iraq surpassed 1,900, some international research scholars may have been perplexed. Only a few years ago, foreign policy makers in Western democracies, including the United States, were described as being extremely sensitive to the risk of military combat casualties. Among the factors that influence the number of casualties that a democracy will experience in conflict, one variable that should not be ignored is its military manpower system. The author contends that democracies with conscript armies experience fewer combat casualties than democracies with volunteer or professional forces because the societal actors most closely affected by conscript casualties are more likely to have the political power and access with which to constrain policy makers. Using several selection models, the author finds that democracy and conscription contribute to fewer casualties than democracy and volunteer militaries, with democracy alone being responsible for casualty numbers that lie somewhere in between.