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An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans

Author

Listed:
  • Philip A. Schrodt

    (Department of Political Science University of Kansas)

  • Deborah J. Gerner

    (Department of Political Science University of Kansas)

Abstract

Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999) and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999) are used to test two sets of process-related hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip A. Schrodt & Deborah J. Gerner, 2004. "An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(3), pages 310-330, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:48:y:2004:i:3:p:310-330
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002704264137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goldstein, Joshua S. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 1997. "Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: Time-series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 515-529, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    2. Ruhe, Constantin, 2012. "Predicting atrocities. Statistically modeling violence against civilians during civil war," NEPS Working Papers 7/2012, Network of European Peace Scientists.

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