Predatory Initiators and Changing Landscapes for Warfare

The Gartner-Siverson war initiation model's focus on selection bias and initiators selecting vulnerable targets is attractive, but it demands further specification. A predictive model of war initiations might not retain statistical significance after 1945. The authors examine 16 possibly related variables and develop a three-variable initiation model, adding information on target regime type and war duration to the original lone initiator-lone target variable for war initiations between 1816 and 1992. The instability of the initiation model before and after 1945 can be traced to changes in who initiates wars. The predatory initiator model does not predict minor power dyads very well, and these dyads have come to dominate the post-1945 war landscape. Several reasons for this phenomenon are suggested, including the argument that the context in which weaker states initiate wars renders opportunistic predators less likely and less successful.