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Empirical Indicators of Crisis Phase in the Middle East, 1979-1995

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  • Philip A. Schrodt
  • Deborah J. Gerner

    (Department of Political Science, University of Kansas)

Abstract

A number of studies of crisis behavior assume that political behavior goes through a series of clear phases characterized by distinct patterns of interactions. Correct identification of these phases is important in crisis forecasting and in the application of mediation techniques such as preventive diplomacy. To date, empirical work with these data sets has identified crisis phases contextually (by human coders) rather than through any systematic procedures. This study uses several statistical techniques to identify and analyze phases in an event data set measuring the political behavior between eight Middle Eastern actors for the period July 1979 to June 1995, and concludes with observations on how these analytic approaches might be applied to the problem of crisis early warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip A. Schrodt & Deborah J. Gerner, 1997. "Empirical Indicators of Crisis Phase in the Middle East, 1979-1995," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(4), pages 529-552, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:41:y:1997:i:4:p:529-552
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002797041004003
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