IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v38y1994i1p160-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the Severity of Great Power War from Its Extent

Author

Listed:
  • William Brian Moul

    (University of Waterloo)

Abstract

Shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and shortly before Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, Cioffi-Revilla forecast that the battle fatalities of an Iraq-United Nations war would be between 100,000 and a million or so, depending on the number of belligerents. The lower estimate presumes four states were to fight; and the higher one presumes ten states were to fight. Whatever the accuracy of the forecast, this article examines the historical reliability of the relationship on which the forecast rests. The apparent linear relationship between the extent and severity of great power war over 1816-1990 is illusory.

Suggested Citation

  • William Brian Moul, 1994. "Predicting the Severity of Great Power War from Its Extent," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 160-169, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:38:y:1994:i:1:p:160-169
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002794038001010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002794038001010
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002794038001010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:38:y:1994:i:1:p:160-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.