Understanding Global War

While the problem of war in general deserves continuing scholarly attention, it seems appropriate to single out the systemwide—that is, global—war for intensive analysis as the kind of war that poses the gravest threat of catastrophe. Such a war can best be understood as an integral part of a long cycle, a recurring pattern in the development and operation of the global layer of the international system. From this perspective the design of a solution to the problem of global war requires either disruption of the long cycle or the development of a functional substitute for the leadership selection process that these wars have provided for the global system. The dominant contemporary solution to the problem, nuclear deterrence, ignores this perspective, and thereby overestimates the long-term utility and viability of deterrence. Deterrence theory also fails to provide a satisfactory explanation as to why and how deterrence works. Thus we must search for a creative alternative; and while its exact nature cannot be described, some relevant lines of inquiry can be identified.