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A Cognitive Analysis of Japan's 1941 Decision for War

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel Levi

    (Department of Psychology Yale University)

  • Philip E. Tetlock

    (Department of Psychology University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

Previous studies have found that the cognitive performance of government decision-makers declines in crises that result in war. This decline has been attributed to crisis-produced stress which leads to simplification of information processing. The present study tested the disruptive stress hypothesis in the context of Japan's decision for war in 1941. Two content analysis techniques, integrative complexity coding (Schroder et al.,) and cognitive mapping (Axelrod, 1976) were used to analyze the translated records of statements by key Japanese policy-makers. Comparisons between statements made in the early and late periods of the 1941 crisis yielded only weak evidence of cognitive simplification. Interestingly, however, the social context in which statements were made significantly affected the complexity of cognitive performance: Statements made in Liaison conterences (in which policies were formulated) were significantly less complex than statements made in Imperial conferences (in which policies were presented to the Emperor for approval). Theoretical and methodological implications of the results were discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Levi & Philip E. Tetlock, 1980. "A Cognitive Analysis of Japan's 1941 Decision for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(2), pages 195-211, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:24:y:1980:i:2:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1177/002200278002400201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Axelrod, 1977. "Argumentation in Foreign Policy Settings," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(4), pages 727-756, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wellman, Michael P., 1994. "Inference in cognitive maps," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 137-148.

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    1. Wellman, Michael P., 1994. "Inference in cognitive maps," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 137-148.

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