Measuring French Arms Transfers

Through a careful examination of French arms transfer behavior over the past twenty years, this article attempts to contribute to the development of a more open, accurate, and reliable system for collecting arms transfer data and for evaluating the military, political, economic, and technological impact of arms transfers on international security. Part one presents arms transfers data for deliveries and orders for France since 1956 based on open French governmental sources. Part two contrasts these findings with ACDA figures. ACDA would appear to substantially underestimate French transfers in constant and current dollars. From 1966 to 1975, these amount, respectively, to $1750 million and $5003 million. Part three outlines some of the principal implications of the two sets of conflicting data for estimating French arms transfers. In contrast to ACDA findings, French economic dependency on arms transfers is considerable and increasing. Until this dependence can be decreased and associated strategic and domestic political restraints relaxed, there exists little French interest in the immediate future in international efforts, such as those of the Carter administration, to diminish the magnitude, rate, or level of sophistication of arms transfers and technological know-how.