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System load trend prediction method based on IF-EMD-LSTM

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Yu
  • Feng Ding
  • Chenghao Guo
  • Yabin Wang

Abstract

Accurately predicting the load change of the information system during operation has important guiding significance for ensuring that the system operation is not interrupted and resource scheduling is carried out in advance. For the information system monitoring time series data, this article proposes a load trend prediction method based on isolated forests-empirical modal decomposition-long-term (IF-EMD-LSTM). First, considering the problem of noise and abnormal points in the original data, the isolated forest algorithm is used to eliminate the abnormal points in the data. Second, in order to further improve the prediction accuracy, the empirical modal decomposition algorithm is used to decompose the input data into intrinsic mode function (IMF) components of different frequencies. Each intrinsic mode function (IMF) and residual is predicted using a separate long-term and short-term memory neural network, and the predicted values are reconstructed from each long-term and short-term memory model. Finally, experimental verification was carried out on Amazon’s public data set and compared with autoregressive integrated moving average and Prophet models. The experimental results show the superior performance of the proposed IF-EMD-LSTM prediction model in information system load trend prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Yu & Feng Ding & Chenghao Guo & Yabin Wang, 2019. "System load trend prediction method based on IF-EMD-LSTM," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(8), pages 15501477198, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:intdis:v:15:y:2019:i:8:p:1550147719867655
    DOI: 10.1177/1550147719867655
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    2. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xuguang Han & Jingming Su & Yan Hong & Pingshun Gong & Danping Zhu, 2022. "Mid- to Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting Based on the EMD–Isomap–Adaboost Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.

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