India in a Future World: Reflections of an Indian Diplomat

A forecast of the global scenario a decade hence is attempted, and the policies India should follow to gain the most advantage are suggested. The nation state system will continue, but there will be major and continuing change in the capacity and power projection of more important states and hence in their relationship. Power in all aspects will shift from the Atlantic powers to Asia and the Indian Pacific Ocean Region resulting in a multipolar system. To manage this better Asia needs to establish a regional cooperation structure. China has emerged as the single most powerful country in Asia, and the current leadership is seeking to put its own model in place. India can and should ensure a leading role for itself by becoming the most effective power in the South Asian and Indian Ocean region. For this it will have to forge a working partnership with China which will not exclude an element of competition. The boundary problem needs to be resolved. The relations with Pakistan must be managed. Relations with all other neighbours must be improved as speedily as possible. The USA will still remain the single most powerful country and close bilateral relations are crucial even while independence is not surrendered. The growing conflicts in the Middle East and the flux in supply and prices of energy need to be addressed. Enhancing domestic capacity will power India’s external projections. The demographic dividend can only be harvested by a determined pursuit of skills innovation and technology to attain excellence in economic production and social goals. This is only possible in a democracy if it moves towards greater inclusion and provides opportunity to all. Success will ensure India becomes a major global power by 2025.