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Forecast of Indian Readymade Garments Exports Using the ARIMA Model

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  • Deepak Chawla

    (International Management Institute, New Delhi, India)

  • Ramesh Behl

    (International Management Institute, New Delhi, India)

Abstract

In this article, an attempt is made to build an ARIMA model to forecast exports of Indian readymade garments. The monthly data on readymade garments exports for the period April 1991 to December 2000 is used to build the model. The forecasts are obtained for the period January 2001 to December 2001 by using the ARIMA model. The accuracy of ex-post forecast is also tested. The forecasts indicate a slow down in the growth of exports in January to March 2001 as compared to the same months in the year 2000. The article concludes by suggesting a review of government policy towards this industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepak Chawla & Ramesh Behl, 2002. "Forecast of Indian Readymade Garments Exports Using the ARIMA Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 63-76, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:3:y:2002:i:1:p:63-76
    DOI: 10.1177/097215090200300105
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