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An Artifact in Pretest-Posttest Designs

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Maltz

    (University of Illinois at Chicago Circle)

  • Andrew C. Gordon

    (Northwestern University)

  • David McDowall

    (Northwestern University)

  • Richard McCleary

    (Arizona State University)

Abstract

A marked decrease in arrest rates-up to 70%-was noted in the evaluation of a juve nile corrections program. This so-called "suppression effect" has been widely publicized as proof of the effectiveness of correctional intervention. In this article we show that the sup pression effect can easily be explained as a statistical artifact, regression to the mean, assuming that judges base their sentencing decisions on juveniles' prior records. We con clude that before/after comparisons should not be used to evaluate delinquency programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Maltz & Andrew C. Gordon & David McDowall & Richard McCleary, 1980. "An Artifact in Pretest-Posttest Designs," Evaluation Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 225-240, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:4:y:1980:i:2:p:225-240
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8000400204
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