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Linearity and Nonlinearity in HIV/STI Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Steven D. Pinkerton
  • Harrell W. Chesson
  • Richard A. Crosby
  • Peter M. Layde

Abstract

A mathematical model of HIV/sexually transmitted infections (STI) transmission was used to examine how linearity or nonlinearity in the relationship between the number of unprotected sex acts (or the number of sex partners) and the risk of acquiring HIV or a highly infectious STI (such as gonorrhea or chlamydia) affects the utility of sexual behavior change measures as indicators of the effectiveness of HIV/STI risk-reduction interventions. Findings indicate that the risk of acquiring HIV through vaginal intercourse is essentially a linear function of the number of unprotected sex acts and is nearly independent of the number of sex partners. Consequently, the number of unprotected sex acts is an excellent marker for the risk of acquiring HIV through vaginal intercourse, whereas the number of sex partners is largely uninformative. In general, the number of unprotected sex acts is not an adequate marker for the risk of acquiring a highly infectious STI due to the highly nonlinear per act transmission dynamics of these STIs. The number of sex partners is a reasonable indicator of STI risk only under highly circumscribed conditions. A theoretical explanation for this pattern of results is provided. The contrasting extent to which HIV and highly infectious STIs deviate from the linearity assumption that underlies sexual behavior outcome measures has important implications for the use of these measures to assess the effectiveness of HIV/STI risk-reduction interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Pinkerton & Harrell W. Chesson & Richard A. Crosby & Peter M. Layde, 2011. "Linearity and Nonlinearity in HIV/STI Transmission," Evaluation Review, , vol. 35(5), pages 550-565, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:550-565
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X11432196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fishbein, M., 1996. "Great expectations, or do we ask too much from community-level interventions?," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(8), pages 1075-1076.
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