IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v23y1996i6p655-666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Use of the Area-Dividing Method to Minimise Expected Error in Land-Use Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Y Aoki

    (Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152, Japan)

  • T Osaragi

    (Department of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152, Japan)

  • A Nagai

    (Gife Prefectural Government Office Building, 1 Tsukasa-cho, Gifu-shi, Gifu 500, Japan)

Abstract

Employing Markov chain models to predict the distribution of land uses is always plagued by several types of error. One type of error stems from the uncertainty which always resides within the transition matrix. In this paper we therefore present a method for estimating such error and for minimising it. As each matrix coefficient refers to one subarea, error is related directly to how the subareas are formulated, and so our method involves dividing a whole region into more appropriate subareas. A simulated neural network is used to achieve this division optimally. We report how experiments were run within an actual urban area. It was found that land-use prediction error is indeed minimised whenever the area-dividing method is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Y Aoki & T Osaragi & A Nagai, 1996. "Use of the Area-Dividing Method to Minimise Expected Error in Land-Use Forecasts," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 23(6), pages 655-666, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:23:y:1996:i:6:p:655-666
    DOI: 10.1068/b230655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b230655
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/b230655?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:23:y:1996:i:6:p:655-666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.