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Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models

Author

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  • F J Willekens

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloss Laxenburg, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract

The theory of multiregional mathematical demography investigates how fertility, mortality, and migration combine to shape the growth of multiregional population systems. Population dynamics have been studied for cases where the structural parameters, namely the age-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, are fixed. This paper addresses the question of how the system behaves under changing structural parameters. By applying the technique of matrix differentiation, sensitivity functions are derived which link changes in multiregional life-table statistics and in population projections to changes in the age-specific rates. A review of the technique, which may be used for the sensitivity analysis of any matrix model, is given in the appendix.

Suggested Citation

  • F J Willekens, 1977. "Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 9(6), pages 653-674, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:9:y:1977:i:6:p:653-674
    DOI: 10.1068/a090653
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    Cited by:

    1. Alyson Raalte & Hal Caswell, 2013. "Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1615-1640, October.
    2. Hal Caswell & Nora Sánchez Gassen, 2015. "The sensitivity analysis of population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(28), pages 801-840.
    3. Coste, Christophe F.D. & Austerlitz, Frédéric & Pavard, Samuel, 2017. "Trait level analysis of multitrait population projection matrices," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-58.

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