“Where has the Future Gone?†Rethinking the Role of Integrated Land-Use Models in Spatial Planning

Despite more than four decades of efforts to integrate the two fields, the place of land-use models in planning remains problematic. The expanding possibilities afforded by today's planning support systems (PSS) invite a rethinking of the relationship between land-use models and planning in the context of new approaches, tools, and techniques that can amplify the positive synergies between the two domains and enhance the ability of spatial planning to prepare for the future. This paper addresses one vitally important area in which the contribution of models to planning practice could be greatly improved. This is the neglected area of strategic planning, which is inextricably linked with the future-oriented mission of the field. The paper begins with an examination of the continuing tensions between modeling and planning, tensions that need to be reconsidered in light of the growing sophistication of land-use models intended for use in a planning context. It then outlines three interrelated roles for land-use models that would help support the mission of planning as a visionary and future-oriented process. These roles are based on approaches discussed in the planning literature (and in the ‘futures' literature more generally) as scenario writing, visioning, and storytelling. Although scenario writing (or development) is a notion familiar to land-use modelers, not every form of scenario development commonly proposed by modelers is useful to planners. Visioning is a goal-oriented process that focuses the community on desired ends and helps sort out the means for reaching these ends. Finally, good storytelling can help to clarify the implications of different alternatives and to build consensus by presenting particular desired or feared future developments in terms meaningful enough to be credible to nonspecialists. The paper presents examples of land-use models that seem well suited to one or the other of these roles. Although no single model is likely to satisfy all three roles, a well-designed PSS can provide the context for their seamless integration and mutual reinforcement.