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Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China

Author

Listed:
  • J Shen

    (Department of Geography, University of Wales Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, Wales)

  • N A Spence

    (Department of Geography, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, England)

Abstract

The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban—rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban—rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Two important components of urban population growth—rural to urban migration and transition—are considered. In previous research, rural to urban population transition was ignored and thus urbanization levels may be significantly underprojected. An accounts-based urban—rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established in this research. These models are used to make urban—rural population projections for the period 1988–2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • J Shen & N A Spence, 1996. "Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(8), pages 1417-1444, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:28:y:1996:i:8:p:1417-1444
    DOI: 10.1068/a281417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vislie, Jon, 1979. "Division of labour--Simon revisited : A comment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-70, February.
    2. J. Ledent, 1982. "Long‐Range Regional Population Forecasting: Specification Of A Minimal Demoeconomic Model, With A Test For Tucson, Arizona," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 37-67, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bocquier & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Wanli Nie, 2023. "Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(24), pages 681-732.

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