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Short-Term Forecasting of Internal Migration

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  • E W Frees

    (School of Business, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin, 1155 Observatory Drive, Madison, Wl 53706)

Abstract

Models for short-range forecasts differ from those for intermediate and long-range forecasts because of the possibility of introducing lagged exogenous factors as explanatory variables. It is widely believed that certain exogenous variables, in particular estimates of state income, are useful leading indicators of migration rates. In this paper, panel-data (or longitudinal-data) models are used to represent the relationship between destination-specific out-migration and several explanatory variables. The introduction of this methodology into the migration literature is possible because of some new and improved databases developed by the US Bureau of the Census. In this paper, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to investigate the incorporation of exogenous factors as variables in the model. One aim in the paper is to use graphical techniques in the understanding of the relationships between migration and these exogenous factors. These techniques provide insight into the strong relationships suggested by the many gravity models that have appeared in the literature. However, when one also includes additional parameters that are estimable in longitudinal-data models, it turns out that there is little additional information in the exogenous factors that is useful for forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • E W Frees, 1993. "Short-Term Forecasting of Internal Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(11), pages 1593-1606, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:25:y:1993:i:11:p:1593-1606
    DOI: 10.1068/a251593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Plane & Peter Rogerson, 1986. "Dynamic flow modeling with interregional dependency effects: an application to structural change in the U.S. migration system," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 91-104, February.
    2. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anjomani, Ardeshir, 2002. "Regional growth and interstate migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 239-265, December.
    2. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.

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