IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envira/v17y1985i1p25-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic—Demographic Modeling with Endogenously Determined Birth and Migration Rates: Theory and Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • A M Isserman

    (Regional Research Institute and Departments of Economics and Geography, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506, USA)

Abstract

The standard demographic approach to population forecasting consists of extrapolating into the future carefully measured birth, death, and migration rates. An alternative is to forecast changes in those rates on the basis of social science theories. In this paper the prospects for incorporating those theories into forecasting models are assessed. The paper has two parts, the first devoted to fertility and the second to migration. Each contains a description of the demographic methods currently used by the US Bureau of the Census followed by a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations for forecasting and an assessment of the prospects for doing so.

Suggested Citation

  • A M Isserman, 1985. "Economic—Demographic Modeling with Endogenously Determined Birth and Migration Rates: Theory and Prospects," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(1), pages 25-45, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:1:p:25-45
    DOI: 10.1068/a170025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a170025
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/a170025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Michael Greenwood & Patrick Gormely, 1971. "A comparison of the determinants of white and nonwhite interstate migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(1), pages 141-155, February.
    3. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    4. Levy, Mildred B & Wadycki, Walter J, 1974. "What Is the Opportunity Cost of Moving? Reconsideration of the Effects of Distance on Migration," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 198-214, January.
    5. Schultz, T Paul, 1973. "Explanation of Birth Rate Changes over Space and Time: A Study of Taiwan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 238-274, Part II, .
    6. Cain, Glen G & Dooley, Martin D, 1976. "Estimation of a Model of Labor Supply, Fertility, and Wages of Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 179-199, August.
    7. Phillips, Llad & Votey, Harold L, Jr & Maxwell, Darold E, 1969. "A Synthesis of the Economic and Demographic Models of Fertility: An Econometric Test," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 298-308, August.
    8. Greenwood, Michael J, 1969. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 189-194, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaime Vallés Giménez & Anabel Zárate Marco, "undated". "Influyen las ayudas públicas por descendientes la fecundidad?. Un estudio para Espana por tramos de edad," Studies on the Spanish Economy 148, FEDEA.
    2. Marcel Fulop, 1977. "The Empirical Evidence from the Fertility Demand Functions: A Review of the Literature," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 21(2), pages 12-22, October.
    3. Tadashi Yamada & Tetsuji Yamada, 1984. "Part-time Employment of Married Women and Fertility in Urban Japan," NBER Working Papers 1474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Meyers, William H., 1974. "The Measurement Of The Social Opportunity Cost Of Labor In A Labor Surplus Economy," Staff Papers 14012, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    5. Martha J. Bailey, 2013. "Fifty Years of Family Planning: New Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Increasing Access to Contraception," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 341-409.
    6. Donald Snyder, 1974. "Economic determinants of family size in West Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(4), pages 613-627, November.
    7. Uma Radhakrishnan, 2010. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for Women in Indonesia," Working Papers 10-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Gaude, Jacques,, 1977. "Causes and repercussions of rural migration in developing countries : a critical analysis," ILO Working Papers 991715693402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Anna Baranowska, 2013. "The family size effects on female employment. Evidence from the “natural experiments” related to human reproduction," Working Papers 57, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
    10. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Muhammad Qasim Attari & Zahid Pervaiz & Amatul R. Chaudhary, 2016. "Socioeconomic Determinants Of Fertility: A Cross Districts Analysis Of Punjab, Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 4(2), pages :37-48, December.
    12. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    13. Uzi Rebhun & Adi Raveh, 2006. "The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 137-178, August.
    14. Sichko, Christopher, 2024. "Migrant selection and sorting during the Great American Drought," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    15. Ian Molho, 2013. "Theories of Migration: A Review," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 526-556, November.
    16. Marcel Fulop, 1977. "A Survey of the Literature on the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 21(1), pages 5-13, March.
    17. Michael Greenwood, 1975. "Simultaneity bias in migration models: An empirical examination," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 12(3), pages 519-536, August.
    18. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    19. W. Hicks, 1974. "Economic development and fertility change in Mexico, 1950–1970," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(3), pages 407-421, August.
    20. Nong ZHU, 2001. "Impacts of Income Gap on Migration Decision in China," Working Papers 200117, CERDI.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:1:p:25-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.