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Forecasting the Progress of Epidemics by Means of a Bayesian-Entropy Framework

Author

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  • R C Souza

    (Grupo de Sistemas, DEE, PUC/RJ, Rua Marques de São Vicente 225, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract

In a recent paper a new approach to forecasting based on the Bayesian principles of information theory was proposed and called the Poisson-gamma single-state model. In this paper a two-state version of the Poisson-gamma model is formulated by considering the uncertainty not only in the parameters but also in the model itself. This model is particularly useful for modelling epidemic data such as measles by considering two different situations (states) of the generating process at each time point: viz, state 1—no epidemic phase; state 2—epidemic phase.

Suggested Citation

  • R C Souza, 1982. "Forecasting the Progress of Epidemics by Means of a Bayesian-Entropy Framework," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(1), pages 49-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:14:y:1982:i:1:p:49-60
    DOI: 10.1068/a140049
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    Cited by:

    1. Souza, R. C. & Brasil, G. H., 1988. "Formulação estrutural - abordagens clássica e bayeseiana: semelhanças e dessemelhanças," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 8(1), June.

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