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The Pilgrimage to Mecca: An Explanatory and Predictive Model

Author

Listed:
  • G Rowley

    (Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, England)

  • S A S El-Hamdan

    (Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs, Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The recent and continuing phenomenal growth in the numbers undertaking the pilgrimage to Mecca is considered against the backcloth of the host region's finite resources. A multiple-regression model is developed which seeks to explain the present pattern of pilgrim movement and to predict future numbers. Insights are provided into the actual stage-by-stage development towards the final model. The assumptions implicit within our evaluations are clearly and unequivocably indicated and discussed. Improved levels of explanation result from more-realistic data inputs. Future pilgrim numbers are predicted for 1983 and 1993. The problem of the ever increasing numbers of pilgrims is briefly alluded to and interim measures are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • G Rowley & S A S El-Hamdan, 1978. "The Pilgrimage to Mecca: An Explanatory and Predictive Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 10(9), pages 1053-1071, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:10:y:1978:i:9:p:1053-1071
    DOI: 10.1068/a101053
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