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Forecasting in Urban and Regional Planning Closed Loops: The Examples of Road and Air Traffic Forecasts

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  • R J Bennett

    (Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, England)

Abstract

Attempts to forecast in situations in which the leading indicators are also used as policy variables are beset by a number of statistical problems which affect the specification of the forecasting model, estimation of its parameters, and the design of policy itself. The main effects are that when there is perfect policy feedback the forecasting model cannot be identified at all; when there is partial or imperfect feedback the forecasting model is collinear, underidentified, and least-squares parameter estimates will be biased. Estimation procedures available in closed loops are reviewed, and the application of these methods to road and air traffic forecasting is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • R J Bennett, 1978. "Forecasting in Urban and Regional Planning Closed Loops: The Examples of Road and Air Traffic Forecasts," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 10(2), pages 145-162, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:10:y:1978:i:2:p:145-162
    DOI: 10.1068/a100145
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    Cited by:

    1. T Cook & P Falchi, 1981. "Time-Series Modelling in a Regional Economy: An Exposition of Box—Jenkins Techniques," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 13(5), pages 635-644, May.

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