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The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Scientific “Consensus†on Global Warming

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  • Patrick J. Michaels
  • Paul C. Knappenberger

Abstract

Climate data support the “moderate†prediction of climate change (l-1.5°C) rather than the more extreme scenario (4°C or more). The moderate point of view was originally marginalized in the IPCC “consensus†process in both the 1990 First Assessment on Climate Change and in the 1992 Update prepared specifically for the Earth Summit and to provide backing for the Rio Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is now accepted, based on ground-based data, that the errors in those models are currently between 160% and 360%. If one compares them to the satellite data combined with the land record, the error rises to a maximum of 720%. In some recognition of this massive error, the 1995 IPCC “consensus†is that warming has been mitigated by sulfate aerosols. However, when that hypothesis is specifically tested, it fails. Further, data required to test the validity of the sulfate enhanced greenhouse models was withheld by the IPCC. despite repeated requests.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Michaels & Paul C. Knappenberger, 1996. "The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Scientific “Consensus†on Global Warming," Energy & Environment, , vol. 7(4), pages 333-348, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:7:y:1996:i:4:p:333-348
    DOI: 10.1177/0958305X9600700403
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    Cited by:

    1. Youguo Zhang, 2012. "Scale, Technique and Composition Effects in Trade-Related Carbon Emissions in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 371-389, March.
    2. Zhao, Xueting & Burnett, J. Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J., 2014. "Province-level Convergence of China CO2 Emission Intensity," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169403, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Jinshan Zhu, 2014. "Assessing China's discriminative tax on Clean Development Mechanism projects. Does China's tax have so many functions?," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 447-466, March.
    4. Pontus Cerin, 2006. "Introducing Value Chain Stewardship (VCS)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 39-61, March.
    5. Wei Shi & Jun Xia & Christopher J Gippel & JunXu Chen & Si Hong, 2017. "Influence of disaster risk, exposure and water quality on vulnerability of surface water resources under a changing climate in the Haihe River basin," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 462-485, May.

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