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Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of General Circulation Models (Gcms)

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  • S. Fred Singer

    (University of Virginia/ Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA 22202)

Abstract

General Circulation Climate Models are based on non-linear partial differential equations and therefore exhibit chaotic characteristics. Each run leads to a different temperature trend value, depending on the exact initial conditions. Modelers therefore constrain the trend value by producing an “ensemble-mean†of several runs. We show here that at least 16 runs of 25-year length are necessary to achieve convergence – and at least 4 runs of 100-year length. Contrary to expectations, we find that these numbers do not depend on the magnitude of radiative forcing of the GCM.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Fred Singer, 2013. "Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of General Circulation Models (Gcms)," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(3-4), pages 397-403, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:397-403
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.397
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