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A Parameterised Carbon Feedback Model for the Calculation of Global Warming from Attainable Fossil Fuel Emissions

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  • Willem P. Nel

    (Sustainable Concepts, PO Box 4297, Cresta, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2118)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the IPCC SRES scenarios against fossil fuel depletion models and proposes attainable carbon emissions trajectories. The contemporary carbon feedback cycle is then evaluated in light of recent studies and attainable carbon emissions. In light of deficiencies in the contemporary carbon feedback cycle, a parametric carbon feedback model is constructed that is consistent with empirical evidence. A radiative feedback model, that overestimates transient response when used in conjunction with equilibrium climate sensitivity, is then used in sensitivity studies to calculate the range of plausible global warming responses. The model predicts a maximum atmospheric concentration of CO 2 in the range of 500–560ppm and a maximum global mean surface temperature increase of 1.5–2°C relative to year 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem P. Nel, 2011. "A Parameterised Carbon Feedback Model for the Calculation of Global Warming from Attainable Fossil Fuel Emissions," Energy & Environment, , vol. 22(7), pages 859-876, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:22:y:2011:i:7:p:859-876
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    Cited by:

    1. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.

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