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Future Coal Production Outlooks in the Ipcc Emission Scenarios: Are They Plausible?

Author

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  • Mikael Höök

    (Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of physics and astronomy, Box 535, SE-751 21, Uppsala, Sweden, webpage: Http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/Mikael.Hook@fysast.uu.se)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamental assumptions regarding coal availability and production in SRES was also compared with recent studies on reasonable future production outlooks. It was found that SRES puts unreasonable expectation on just a few countries. Is it reasonable to expect that China, already accounting for 46% of the global output, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain SRES scenarios? It is concluded that SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated resource estimates. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikael Höök, 2011. "Future Coal Production Outlooks in the Ipcc Emission Scenarios: Are They Plausible?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 22(7), pages 837-857, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:22:y:2011:i:7:p:837-857
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