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The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • James A. Overdahl
  • H.Lee Matthews

Abstract

The recent introduction of traded options on crude oil futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gives energy economists a new tool for forecasting the price of crude oil. Since the pricing of these options requires that market participants assess the probability distribution of future crude oil prices, a properly specified model of option pricing can be used to "back out" this assessment from observed option prices.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Overdahl & H.Lee Matthews, 1988. "The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 9(4), pages 135-148, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:9:y:1988:i:4:p:135-148
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No4-7
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