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Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).

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  • James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, , vol. 6(1), pages 97-116, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:6:y:1985:i:1:p:97-116
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1980. "The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Wages and Prices: 1890-1976," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 78-90, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Merve KOCAMAN, 2024. "Causality from Oil Price Shocks to Macroeconomic Indicators: A Comparison for Top Oil Importer Countries," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 205-218, December.

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