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Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature

Author

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  • James McCulloch
  • Katja Ignatieva

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • James McCulloch & Katja Ignatieva, 2020. "Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(3), pages 161-182, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:3:p:161-182
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.3.jmcc
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