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Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban?

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  • Mark Agerton
  • Gregory B. Upton Jr.

Abstract

Over the past decade the primary U.S. crude benchmark, WTI, diverged considerably from its foreign counterpart, Brent, sometimes selling at a steep discount. Some studies pointed to the ban on exporting U.S. crude oil production as the main culprit for this divergence. We find that scarce domestic pipeline capacity explains half to three quarters of the deviation of mid-continent crude oil prices from their long-run relationship with Brent crude. We are unable to find evidence that mismatch between domestic refining configurations and domestic crude characteristics contributed significantly to this deviation. This implies that the short-run deleterious effects of the export ban may have been exaggerated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Agerton & Gregory B. Upton Jr., 2019. "Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 155-172, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:3:p:155-172
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.3.mage
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    1. Cumby, Robert E & Huizinga, John, 1992. "Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 185-195, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Tail risk connectedness in the refined petroleum market: A first look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Libo Xu, 2024. "On the WTI-WCS Oil Price Differential," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 67-77, September.
    3. Ruble, Isabella & Powell, John, 2021. "The Brent-WTI spread revisited: A novel approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    4. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
    5. Ryan A. Decker & Meagan McCollum & Gregory B. Upton Jr., 2024. "Boom Town Business Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(2), pages 627-651.
    6. Jennifer Rushlow & Paul Bauer, 2021. "How the Removal of a Market Barrier Enhanced Market Efficiency: The Case of WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 87-96, March.
    7. Luong, Phat V., 2023. "Crude oil pipeline constraints: A tale of two shales," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Mark Agerton & Ben Gilbert & Gregory B. Upton Jr., 2021. "The Economics of Natural Gas Venting, Flaring and Leaking in U.S. Shale: An Agenda for Research and Policy," Working Papers 2021-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    10. Yanting Chen & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2023. "Temperature, storage, and natural gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 549-575, April.
    11. Unel, Bulent & Upton, Gregory B., 2023. "Oil & gas induced economic fluctuations and self-employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Kenneth Rose & Brittany Tarufelli & Gregory B. Upton Jr., 2024. "Retail Electricity Market Restructuring and Retail Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(1), pages 1-49, January.
    14. Upton, Gregory B. & Yu, Han, 2021. "Labor demand shocks and earnings and employment differentials: Evidence from the U.S. shale oil & gas boom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 807-825, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Crude oil export ban; Shale oil; Crude oil pipelines; Crude-by-rail; Congestion pricing; Oil refining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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