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Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Petter Bjerksund
  • Gunnar Stensland
  • Frank Vagstad

Abstract

In the literature, one approach is to analyse gas storage within a simple one-factor price dynamics framework that is solved to optimality. We follow an alternative approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from a one-factor model as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor model.

Suggested Citation

  • Petter Bjerksund & Gunnar Stensland & Frank Vagstad, 2011. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(1), pages 203-228, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:32:y:2011:i:1:p:203-228
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No1-8
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