India’s Non-CO2 GHG Emissions: Development Pathways and Mitigation Flexibility

This paper analyses the future trends (2000-2030) in Methane and Nitrous Oxide emissions across four scenarios that have been developed for India. The future state of Indian economy in the next 30-years has been broadly visualized under four scenarios proposed as combinations of market integration (extent of liberalization, globalization and integration with the world markets) and nature of governance (centralization vs. decentralization). The methodology chosen for the development of these scenarios draws mainly from the IPCC SRES methodology. The paper presents CH4 and N2O emissionsfor each of the scenarios for all the major emitting sectors. The major sources of Methane emissions are livestock and paddy contributing to about 65% of the total emissions in 2000. The share of emissions from Municipal Solid Waste is also expected to rise with increasing urbanization. Nitrous Oxide emissions arise chiefly from synthetic fertilizer use (contributing 67% of total emissions) and from field burning of agricultural residue. The paper also presents mitigation analysis for CO2 and CH4 and long-term, hundred-year analysis for CO2, CH4 and N2O.