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Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From The UK Continental Shelf

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  • Alex G. Kemp
  • A.S. Kasim

Abstract

Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority offields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates - a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex G. Kemp & A.S. Kasim, 2005. "Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From The UK Continental Shelf," The Energy Journal, , vol. 26(1), pages 27-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:26:y:2005:i:1:p:27-50
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kemp, Alexander G., 1990. "An assessment of UK North Sea oil and gas policies Twenty-five years on," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 599-623, September.
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