IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v24y2003i4p75-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Koomey
  • Paul Craig
  • Ashok Gadgil
  • David Lorenzetti

Abstract

One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg’s retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Koomey & Paul Craig & Ashok Gadgil & David Lorenzetti, 2003. "Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives," The Energy Journal, , vol. 24(4), pages 75-92, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:75-92
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-4
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. DeCanio, 2003. "Economic Models of Climate Change," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50946-7, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey C. Peters & Thomas W. Hertel, 2017. "Achieving the Clean Power Plan 2030 CO2 Target with the New Normal in Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Terry Barker & S. Serban Scrieciu & Tim Foxon, 2008. "Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 30-45, December.
    3. John M. Gowdy, 2013. "Valuing nature for climate change policy: from discounting the future to truly social deliberation," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 25, pages 547-560, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Kristine Belesova & Ilan Kelman & Roger Boyd, 2016. "Governance through Economic Paradigms: Addressing Climate Change by Accounting for Health," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(4), pages 87-96.
    5. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "Macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy-intensive industries: The case of the UK Climate Change Agreements, 2000-2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-778, July.
    6. Nic Rivers & Mark Jaccard, 2005. "Combining Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Energy-Economy Modeling Using Discrete Choice Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-106.
    7. Stephen J. Decanio & Catherine S. Norman, 2005. "Economics Of The “Critical Use” Of Methyl Bromide Under The Montreal Protocol," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(3), pages 376-393, July.
    8. Marie-Noëlle Woillez & Gaël Giraud & Antoine Godin, 2020. "Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences," Post-Print hal-03102681, HAL.
    9. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Niemann, Paul, 2006. "Equity effects of alternative assignments of global environmental rights," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 546-559, April.
    10. Frank Ackerman & Ian J. Finlayson, 2006. "The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 509-526, September.
    11. Higgins, Paul A.T., 2013. "Frameworks for pricing greenhouse gas emissions and the policy objectives they promote," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1301-1308.
    12. Davidsdottir, B. & Fisher, M., 2011. "The odd couple: The relationship between state economic performance and carbon emissions economic intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4551-4562, August.
    13. Stephen DeCanio, 2003. "Economic Analysis, Environmental Policy, and Intergenerational Justice in the Reagan Administration The Case of the Montreal Protocol," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 299-321, December.
    14. Danny Cullenward & Lee Schipper & Anant Sudarshan & Richard Howarth, 2011. "Psychohistory revisited: fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 457-472, February.
    15. Nelson, Julie A., 2008. "Economists, value judgments, and climate change: A view from feminist economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 441-447, April.
    16. Stephen Newbold & Adam Daigneault, 2009. "Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 351-377, November.
    17. Nelson, J.A., 2013. "Ethics and the economist: What climate change demands of us," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 145-154.
    18. Stephen Keen & Timothy M. Lenton & Antoine Godin & Devrim Yilmaz & Matheus Grasselli & Timothy J. Garrett, 2021. "Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change," Papers 2108.07847, arXiv.org.
    19. Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2013. "Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    20. Füssel, Hans-Martin, 2009. "New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity," MPRA Paper 13788, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy modeling; Forecasting;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:75-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.