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Oil Shocks and the Demand for Electricity

Author

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  • Edward C. Kokkelenberg
  • Timothy D. Mount

Abstract

This paper uses a Structural Econometric Model - Time Series Analysis to forecast the demand for electricity in the United States. The main innovation is to incorporate price shocks for oil into the model. The results show that if forecasts had been made with this model in the mid-1970s, they would have predicted the drop in the growth of demand more promptly than did the electric utility industry forecasts. Using current data, forecasts of demand for the year 2000 from the model are higher than industry forecasts, suggesting a reversal of the situation that existed in the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward C. Kokkelenberg & Timothy D. Mount, 1993. "Oil Shocks and the Demand for Electricity," The Energy Journal, , vol. 14(2), pages 113-138, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:14:y:1993:i:2:p:113-138
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-6
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    1. Geoffrey H. Moore & Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "Appendix A: The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 735-780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Espey, James A. & Espey, Molly, 2004. "Turning on the Lights: A Meta-Analysis of Residential Electricity Demand Elasticities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Sajal Ghosh & Anjana Das, 2002. "Short-run electricity demand forecasts in Maharashtra," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 1055-1059.
    3. Silk, Julian I. & Joutz, Frederick L., 1997. "Short and long-run elasticities in US residential electricity demand: a co-integration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 493-513, October.
    4. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; electricity demand; Structural econometric model; Time series analysis; US; SEMTSA model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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