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EPA’s Scenarios for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming

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  • Daniel A. Lashof

Abstract

While it is not possible to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations immediately, a global commitment to reducing emissions would decrease the risks of global warming regardless of uncertainties about the response of the climate system. Scenario analyses conducted by EPA for a Report to Congress on Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate indicate that if no policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions are undertaken, the equivalent of a doubling of carbon dioxide would occur between 2030 and 2040, and the Earth might be committed to a global warming of 2-4°C(3-7°F) by 2025 and 3-6°C(4-10°F) by 2050. Early application of existing and emergingtechnologies designed among other things, to increase the efficiency of energy use, expand the use of non-fossil energy sources, reverse deforestation, and phase out chlorofluorocarbons, could reduce the global warming commitment in 2025 by about one-fourth, and the rate of climatic change during the next century by at least 60%. A global commitment to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions could stabilize the concentrations of these gases by the middle of the next century, perhaps limiting global warming to less than 2°C(3°F).

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel A. Lashof, 1991. "EPA’s Scenarios for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(1), pages 125-146, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:1:p:125-146
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-8
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