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The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future

Author

Listed:
  • Charles R. Nelson
  • Stephen C. Peck
  • Robert G. Uhler

Abstract

Projections of the future demand for electricity published annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in electricity growth which has occurred since the early 1970s? The authors have attempted to provide partial answers to this question by comparing the published NERC projections with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well-established techniques. The authors also discuss how modelers and planners can cope with uncertainty by using the techniques of decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles R. Nelson & Stephen C. Peck & Robert G. Uhler, 1989. "The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future," The Energy Journal, , vol. 10(2), pages 91-108, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:10:y:1989:i:2:p:91-108
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Rigoberto Ariel Yepez-Garcia & Todd M. Johnson & Luis Alberto Andres, 2011. "Meeting the Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2334.
    2. Sajal Ghosh & Anjana Das, 2002. "Short-run electricity demand forecasts in Maharashtra," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 1055-1059.
    3. Silk, Julian I. & Joutz, Frederick L., 1997. "Short and long-run elasticities in US residential electricity demand: a co-integration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 493-513, October.
    4. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NERC; Energy forecasts; Electricity demand; Electricity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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