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Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli

    (Harpaul Alberto Kohli is Manager of Information Analytics at the Centennial Group International and Emerging Markets Forum. E-mail: harpaul@hcs.harvard.edu)

  • Phillip Basil

    (Phillip Basil is a Sr Business Development Analyst in Reston, VA and a former Sr Research Assistant at the Federal Reserve Board. E-mail: phillip.basil@gmail.com)

Abstract

This study estimates requirements for infrastructure investment in 21 Latin American countries for the period 2011–2040 using a structural equation model. Needs total about 4 percent of GDP. Projections are provided for both a high-growth convergence scenario and a low-growth business-as-usual scenario. These costs represent minimum investments necessary to support expected economic growth. Costs are presented separately and in total for new-capacity investment and maintenance for 10 sectors: airports, electricity, fixed broadband, landlines, mobile telephony, ports, rail, paved roads, sanitation, and water. Country coverage comprises Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The model differs from past studies of regionwide long-term infrastructure investment needs in five features: (1) It considers alternate GDP growth scenarios; (2) It employs a structural equation model using instrumental variables to provide unbiased, consistent projections for both GDP growth scenarios (Instrumented variables are urbanization and the shares in GDP of agriculture, manufacturing, and services); (3) Mobile phone investment costs are not constant but instead vary with population density; (4) Two additional, wealthier countries are included in modeling to prevent forecasting outside the range of the independent variables’ values used to construct the model, and; (5) Timing of new-capacity investments is distributed over multiple years and varies by sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Phillip Basil, 2011. "Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(1), pages 59-110, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:59-110
    DOI: 10.1177/097491011000300103
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jean-Marc Montaud & Jorge Dávalos & Nicolas Pécastaing, 2020. "Potential effects of scaling-up infrastructure in Peru: a general equilibrium model-based analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(27), pages 2895-2912, May.
    4. Galindo Paliza, Luis Miguel & Hoffmann, Bridget & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2022. "How Much Will It Cost to Achieve the Climate Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11983, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Claudio Loser & José Fajgenbaum, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 155-195, May.
    6. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    7. Jorge Davalos & Jean-Marc Montaud & Nicolas Pecastaing, 2019. "Potential effect of Scaling-up Iinfrastructure in Peru: a general equilibrium model-bases analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-02937833, HAL.
    8. Luis Miguel Galindo Paliza & Bridget Hoffman & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2022. "How Much Will It Cost to Achieve the Climate Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean? [¿Cuánto costará lograr los objetivos del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe?]," Post-Print halshs-03720397, HAL.
    9. Fuss, Sabine & Chen, Claudine & Jakob, Michael & Marxen, Annika & Rao, Narasimha D. & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2016. "Could resource rents finance universal access to infrastructure? A first exploration of needs and rents," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 691-712, December.
    10. Claudio Loser & José Fajgenbaum, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 155-195, May.
    11. Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), 2013. "Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence — Second Edition," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 2, number latam2040v2, Summer.
    12. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Natasha Mukherjee, 2011. "Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 291-311, September.
    13. Claudio Loser & Anil Sood, 2011. "Breaking away from Mediocre Complacency to a Prosperous Future," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(1), pages 5-58, January.
    14. Jorge Luis Sanchez Arevalo & Edgard Monforte Merlo, 2020. "Social-economic Analysis of Physical Integration between Brazil and Peru: Focus for the Regions Linked to the Interoceanic Highway," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 102-110.

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